The NPP may be at a difficult crossroads; more than 200,000 delegates will vote for a new flagbearer for a party that has been riddled with uneasy controversies after a thumping defeat in the 2024 election.

Expectedly, the two front-runners in the contest, Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, the 2024 flagbearer for the NPP, and Ken Agyapong, the runner-up in the Party’s 2023 primary, have stirred intense debate sometimes with rancorous undertones.

From science to religion, there have been strong contentions and debates: “It’s a contest between prophecy and science,” renowned academic Professor Ransford Gyampo asserts. But there could be more to it than meets the eye. The science itself is not decidedly certain; Emerging pollster, Dr. Evans Duah, in a poll that seems credible, projects a “one-touch” victory for Ken Agyapong with 52 percent of the votes, while Musa Dankwah, arguably the country’s most credible pollster today, predicts a one-touch victory for Dr. Bawumia with a percentage of 56, handing Ken a paltry 28 percent of the votes.

However, supporters of Ken Agyapong remain unfazed, pointing out that in the 2023 primary, Musa Dankwah predicted just about 17 percent for Ken; he ended up with 37 percent of the votes! If that is anything to go by then the supporters of Ken believe that they could be cruising to victory. Yet, Musa Dankwah cautions that the 2024 NPP primary is like no other in the history of the NPP: traditional NPP primaries have been two-horse races but this time round, the emergence of Bryan Acheampong seem to have altered the dynamics of the race – Bryan percentage will be significant, the celebrated pollster argues.

Bryan has gradually seen his popularity soar over the past weeks, although he is still far from even a hint of victory. Nevertheless, he has probably made a strong case for a future candidacy in his quest to lead the party. Musa Dankwah predicts about 13 percent of the votes for Bryan. That will be a phenomenal stride for the Abetifi MP.

But many believe Musa Dankwah polls are on a bend, and some have predicted that this election may deal a big dent on his credibility as a pollster. Yet the chartered accountant and founder of the Global Infoanalytics has dismissed critics and touted his credentials.

Dr. Duah argues that even with the establishment support Bawumia received in 2023, Ken managed 37 percent of the votes; he predicts a bigger haul for the former MP of Assin Central who has been described as a political disrupter by renowned Ghanaian prophet, Bernard Elbernard Nelson Eshun. Prophet Elbernard has added a touch of spirituality to the NPP primary; He says in the realms of the spirit, it’s a done deal for Ken – “he has already won the elections,” Prophet Elbernard has consistently claimed. But this claim has been sharply rebuffed by other notable prophets; Prophets Nigel Gaisie, William Braham and Emmanuel Worlasi have all declared that it is a victory for Dr. Bawumia.

Between the prophets and pollsters there may be questions, but what actually pertains on the ground? Renowned journalist, Paul Adom Otchere believes that even among the Bawumia camp, there is obvious concession that Ken has gained significant momentum and a Bawumia victory will have a slimmer margin than the 2023 election.

Between the prophets and the pollsters, there may be unresolved questions, but what are the real issues on the ground? There is very little doubt that popular opinion in the Party favours Ken Agyapong, as many believe that Dr. Bawumia is a member of the “old guard” that let the Party down. While many middle-aged and elderly people in the Party berate Ken for his fiery temper, disappointed youth in the party, who form the numbers, admire his bluntness, business accomplishments, and simplicity, identifying him as a man for the youth, one whose fiery and no-nonsense demeanour can transform the country.

Discernibly, if it had been an election of all-party members, that would have been a straight victory for Ken. The delegate system is significantly influenced by Opinion Leaders, and Dr. Bawumia, after several years at the helm, seems to have garnered enough influence and resources to retain a hold over many opinion leaders in the Party who influence the party delegates.

As noted by Paul Adom Otchere, if Ken wins this election, then it would be an obvious indication that the ordinary and popular voices in the party have found expression in the thumbs of the delegates.